XAUUSD quotes are rising after bouncing off the key support level at 3,250; however, a break below this level could trigger an acceleration of the decline. Details – in our analysis for 30 June 2025.
XAUUSD forecast: key trading points
- Over the past two weeks, XAUUSD has fallen by more than 5.6%, but the market structure still shows signs of an upward trend
- Reduced geopolitical tensions traditionally weaken demand for gold as a safe-haven asset
- The US and China signed a trade agreement, improving global market sentiment
- XAUUSD forecast for 30 June 2025: 3,415
Fundamental analysis
XAUUSD prices show moderate growth on Monday morning after bouncing off a monthly low. Nevertheless, pressure on the asset remains amid easing geopolitical risks and progress in international trade negotiations. Over the past two weeks, gold prices have fallen by more than 5.6%, but it is premature to say the medium-term bullish trend has ended.
An additional factor weighing on prices is the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, which reduces concerns about the conflict expanding in the Middle East. Furthermore, global markets found support from the signing of a trade agreement between the US and China, while Donald Trump hinted at a possible upcoming deal with India.
Global stabilisation and reduced tensions traditionally weaken demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, in an environment of high interest rates, the attractiveness of non-yielding gold becomes even lower.
XAUUSD technical analysis
XAUUSD quotes are strengthening after bouncing off the lower boundary of the upward channel and the key support level at 3,250. Despite the ongoing bearish correction, the price structure on the chart retains signs of a medium-term upward trend with the potential to recover to local highs. The forecast for XAUUSD price today suggests the development of a bullish impulse towards the level of 3,415. A breakout of the local resistance at 3,315 will confirm the market’s readiness for continued growth and strengthen interest in long positions. Analysis of the Stochastic Oscillator indicator indicates an approaching end to the oversold phase, which also supports the scenario of a rebound and further strengthening of quotes.
Summary
Despite the local rebound, gold remains under pressure due to reduced geopolitical tensions and tight financial conditions. XAUUSD analysis for today indicates a continuing potential for growth within the upward channel towards the level of 3,415.
Source: Roboforex
