XAUUSD prices continue to strengthen, taking advantage of the weaker dollar after disappointing US Nonfarm Payrolls data. Find more details in our analysis for 5 August 2025.
XAUUSD forecast: key trading points
- Market focus: today, the market awaits the US S&P Global services PMI data
- Current trend: moving upwards
- XAUUSD forecast for 5 August 2025: 3,400 or 3,350
Fundamental analysis
XAUUSD quotes are rising, supported by expectations of an interest rate cut in the US in September. Traders are now pricing in over a 90% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates next month. This comes after a weak employment report raised concerns about the outlook for US economic growth.
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly stated on Monday that the time for a rate cut is approaching, citing the current cooling of the labour market and the absence of strong inflation growth signals amid the introduction of new trade tariffs.
XAUUSD technical analysis
XAUUSD prices are rising after reversing upwards from the daily low at 3,268 USD. The Alligator indicator has also turned upwards, suggesting the possibility of continued upward movement after a brief correction.
The short-term XAUUSD forecast suggests further growth towards 3,400 USD and higher if bulls maintain current momentum. However, if bears reverse the quotes, prices could retreat to the 3,350 USD support level.
Summary
Gold has surged towards the 3,400 USD area amid dollar weakness following disappointing US labour market statistics. Today, the market will focus on the release of the S&P Global services PMI data.
Source: Roboforex
