Gold (XAUUSD) is hovering around 3,580 USD per ounce, having reached yearly highs and approaching historical levels. Expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut as early as September continue to support the rally. Markets are pricing in a nearly 100% probability of a dovish move. Geopolitical risks and doubts over the Fed’s independence amid political pressure create extra demand for gold.
This article explores what to expect from gold in the upcoming week.
XAUUSD forecast for this week: quick overview
- Weekly dynamics
Gold (XAUUSD) ends the week by hitting new local highs and consolidating above the key 3,508 level. The rally was driven by soft US data, expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, and steady demand for safe-haven assets.
- Support and resistance
An immediate support level lies near 3,508. A breakout could push prices towards 3,469 and then 3,265. The resistance level is seen at 3,564, with the next target at the all-time high of 3,588.
- Fundamentals
Gold is supported by an almost 100% probability of a Fed rate cut in September and signs of cooling in the US labour market.
Additional drivers include geopolitical uncertainty and US dollar weakness.
- Forecast
The baseline scenario suggests consolidation above 3,508, with a focus on breaking above the 3,588 resistance level. Consolidation above this level would open the way to new all-time highs. A correction below 3,508 would increase risks of a pullback to 3,469 and a test of deeper support levels.
Gold (XAUUSD) fundamental analysis
Gold finishes the first week of September near its all-time highs, around 3,480 USD per ounce. Expectations of Fed monetary policy easing support prices. Markets estimate the likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September at 100%.
Political risks in the US associated with Donald Trump’s attempts to exert influence over the Federal Reserve and ongoing legal disputes around tariffs also fuel demand for safe-haven assets.
Labour market data in the US acted as key fundamental drivers. ADP showed an increase of just 54 thousand jobs versus the forecast of 73 thousand. JOLTS registered a decline in job openings to 7.18 million, the lowest since September 2024. Jobless claims rose to a two-month high. Labour market weakness increased expectations of imminent easing, directly supporting gold as a non-yielding asset.
Meanwhile, global uncertainty continues to boost interest in gold, with added demand from Asia.
In the short term, gold’s trajectory will depend on further signals from the Federal Reserve.
XAUUSD technical analysis
On the daily chart, XAUUSD consolidated in the 3,579 area following a rapid rally. Prices tested the 3,588 level, the recent monthly high and key resistance. The support level is forming in the 3,508 zone, followed by 3,265.
Candlesticks from the past week show a confident upward impulse. The movement from 3,400 to 3,570 occurred with barely any pullbacks. Bollinger Bands have widened, confirming a strong trend and high volatility.
MACD indicates growing bullish momentum, with the histogram rising and the line above zero. The Stochastic is nearing overbought territory (88-90), which may suggest a possible correction in the coming sessions.
The overall technical picture remains positive. Consolidation above 3,588.21 will open the path to new records, while a retreat below 3,508 would increase pressure on buyers and could lead to consolidation around 3,400-3,450.
XAUUSD trading scenarios
The fundamental backdrop remains mixed. Gold receives support from weak US labour market data. Geopolitical risks and pressure on Fed independence from Donald Trump boost demand.
- Buy scenario
Long positions remain valid while prices hold above 3,509.
A rebound from this level could push prices to 3,580. Should US Treasury yields decline significantly, gold could reach new all-time highs.
- Sell scenario
Short positions become relevant if prices break below 3,509.
In this case, targets shift to 3,469 and then to the 3,265 area.
This scenario may gain strength on strong US labour data and rising bond yields, which would support the dollar and weigh on gold.
Conclusion
Gold is consolidating within the 3,509-3,580 range. The base case suggests that gold holds its position, with the potential to move to new highs if US labour data remains soft. A breakout below 3,509 will signal a deeper correction.
Summary
Gold (XAUUSD) prices ended the week near 3,580 per ounce, reaching new peaks and record levels.
The rally faces resistance from positive stock market dynamics and investor interest in risk assets, which reduce the appeal of safe-haven instruments. Additional risks are associated with US trade policy and currency fluctuations that influence both the dollar and gold.
The key support level lies around 3,500, with resistance at 3,588. A breakout above 3,588 will open the path to new record highs. Consolidation below 3,500 would increase the likelihood of a decline to the 3,439-3,350 zone. While prices hover near the upper boundary of the range, the market remains sensitive to macroeconomic and political headlines.
Source: Roboforex