The Composite PMI Index in the EU remained in the zone of depression for November (47.8 points), slightly better than October, but still pointing to a reduction in activity in the European economy. The good news is that inflationary pressures are fading as supply crunches ease, and the depth of the expected recession may not be deep.

Although third quarter GDP data indicated a slight expansion (+0.2%), data such as PMI already suggests that a recession in the European economy is in full swing. The composite index for November slightly increased compared to the previous month (45.7 vs. 43.8 points), however, the index is below 50 points, which means there is a reduction in activity, only slightly less strong than last month:

New orders continued to decline, which means that the current volume of production is formed due to the backlogs of orders formed in previous months and in the following months this sub-index will likely disappoint with a low figure. In the services sector of the Eurozone, the decline in activity was approximately the same as in October, by historical standards, quite seriously. Here, too, new orders have been falling, meaning firms may be reluctant to increase demand for labor.

The only positive side of the report was the data on inflation. Weak demand, easing price pressure in the energy market and the normalization of supply chains have contributed positively to pipeline price pressures.

British PMI indices also pointed to the onset or development of a recession in the economy. The composite index rose from 48.2 to 48.3, which, however, is below the neutral level of 50 points.

Data on the US real estate market and orders for durable goods in October exceeded expectations, indicating a good pace of expansion for the US economy in the past month. The combination of declining inflation and strong demand and consumption data allowed the market to price growth in firms' revenues, which was reflected in the rally of US stock indices. U.S. durable goods orders are on the rise for the third month in a row, with growth accelerating:

The search for yield picks up on Wednesday after the US market sent a favorable signal to close higher on Tuesday. The S&P 500 crossed 4,000 points. The dollar index turned into a large-scale decline on Wednesday, the largest gain among the major currencies is observed in the GBPUSD (+0.8%). Investors price in the decline in British bond yields. Oil quotes fell by 3% as speculations that OPEC will increase production are gaining momentum. Market participants are also penciling in the idea that lower prices in the energy market will also have a positive effect on cost inflation and oil-importing economies will finally be able to “breathe”.