ECB in Focus Today
Traders are bracing for the headline event of the week today, with the July ECB meeting due. The market is widely expecting the bank to hike rates by at least .25% today, in line with the bank’s own guidance. However, soaring inflation and hawkish commentary from some within the ECB, is fuelling a split in expectations with some portions of the market now expecting the bank to hike by a larger .5%.
Given these hawkish expectations, the stage is set for plenty of volatility today. If the ECB opts for the smaller option, bulls might well be disappointed, especially given recent EUR strength, leading to a pullback in the Euro. However, if the bank opts for the larger hike, the reaction will likely be a firmer EUR although the bigger focus is going to be on the bank’s forward guidance. If the bank is seen sounding firmly hawkish, indicating further hikes to come this year – signalling a larger hike in September perhaps, then this should keep EUR supported. The only risk is with regard to how cautious the bank sounds on the potential economic impact and recession risks into year-end.
Where to Trade the ECB Meeting?
EURJPY
This pair is in a very interesting position. Following the downside break of the bull channel, price has since traded back up to retest the broken channel. Price is now sitting in the middle of the recent 140.82 – 143.80 range. Today’s ECB meeting might prove the catalyst for a directional move through either of those limits, with a topside break targeting 149.83 and a downside break targeting 133.14.
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Written by James Harte
With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.
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Source: Tickmill