Trading Today’s NFP ReleaseGiven the built up hawkish expectations heading into today’s NFP release (you can find a fuller briefing here) it’s important to also consider what we might see play out should any of the data miss the mark. As I touch on quite regularly, when the market is looking so heavily in one direction, often times, the better trades can be found looking the other way.With today’s release in mind, if we see the headline NFP number disappoint, while this is likely to destabilise USD much (given the clear hawkishness within the Fed), what it does mean is that today is unlikely to drive much of a USD rally. With that in mind, it’s time to think about which currencies stand to benefit if that is the case.GBP has been one of the strongest performers this week. With the government refusing to go into lockdown and citing its plan to keep restrictions at current levels (with plans to scale them back as soon as possible), the hope is that the UK is now pushing past the crisis point of the pandemic. Consequently, the focus is turning back to surging inflation and rising BOE tightening expectations which look likely to keep GBP supported near term as the BOE pressed ahead with a February hike (under current market pricing).Technical ViewsGBPUSDThe market is entering a key technical region here where we have confluence between the bear channel top, recent highs and a ledge of broken lows. With MACD and RSI bullish, any USD weakness from today’s release might be enough to help drive GBP higher here. The key level to watch is a break of the 1.3676 level, opening the way for a test of 1.38 and 1.40 thereafter.
Source: Tickmill
