Market Spotlight: Trading Today’s June US Retail Sales

43299 market spotlight trading todays june us retail sales

Retail Sales Up Next

On the back of Wednesday’s feverish US inflation report and subsequent hawkish comments from Fed’s Waller yesterday, traders are now keenly awaiting the release of US June retail sales later today. Given its role in calculating overall GDP, retail sales are a vital indicator of the health of the economy and, with recession fears dominating news flows and trader conversation recently, this data is attracting extra attention.

Yesterday we heard Fed’s Waller saying that, following Wednesday’s CPI data, he would be in favour of a larger than .75% hike if today’s retail sales came in strong also. With the June NFP beating expectations and CPI running at 40-year highs, strong retail sales today looks highly likely and should cement the chances of a larger 1% hike at the upcoming July FOMC in two-weeks’ time. With this in mind, USD looks prone to further upside if today’s data comes in hot. Alternatively, if we see any surprise downside, this will no doubt make the picture more uncertain ahead of the FOMC, likely seeing a little USD give-back near-term.

Technical Views

AUDUSD

If today’s data should see any USD give-back, AUDUSD is one vehicle I like for trading a correction. Solid employment data has further lifted RBA tightening expectations and given how laboured the recent move lower has been, AUDUSD looks ripe for a short squeeze higher. Bulls can look for a break of the .6847 level targeting a move through the channel highs and .6987 level towards .7191 initially.

Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71% and 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Written by James Harte

With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.


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