The EURUSD rate is testing a key resistance level as the US dollar comes under pressure due to expectations of an imminent Fed rate cut. The rate currently stands at 1.1731. Discover more in our analysis for 12 September 2025.
EURUSD forecast: key trading points
- In August, US inflation rose by 2.9% year-on-year, the highest since January
- Jobless claims increased by 27 thousand to 263 thousand, the highest since October 2021
- Market participants are confident of at least a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut next week
- EURUSD forecast for 12 September 2025: 1.1845
Fundamental analysis
The EURUSD rate is correcting near the 1.1735 resistance level. The US dollar remains under pressure following statistics that reinforced expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve base rate cut at the September meeting.
In August, US consumer prices rose by 2.9% year-on-year after 2.7% in July, reaching the highest level since January. The data matched analysts’ forecasts and confirmed persistent inflationary pressure.
Meanwhile, US jobless claims rose by 27 thousand last week to 263 thousand, the highest since October 2021. The consensus forecast had expected a decline of 2 thousand, but the actual statistics came in worse than expected.
Market participants are now confident that the Fed will lower the rate by at least 25 basis points next week. According to FedWatch, the probability of such a decision stands at 92.7%, while the likelihood of a 50-basis-point cut is estimated at 7.3%.
EURUSD technical analysis
The EURUSD rate has consolidated above the upper boundary of a Wedge reversal pattern, signalling an attempt to form a new bullish impulse. The breakout above the Moving Averages strengthens the likelihood of further growth towards the 1.1845 level.
Today’s EURUSD forecast suggests the bullish scenario will persist with a focus on further strengthening of the euro, while a local support level is forming around 1.1690. The Stochastic Oscillator has turned up from oversold territory, generating a buy signal and confirming the probability of continued bullish momentum.
Holding prices above 1.1755 will be a key condition for the bullish scenario to materialise.
Summary
Rising inflation combined with signs of labour market weakness increases expectations of imminent Federal Reserve policy easing, which puts pressure on the US dollar. Technical analysis of EURUSD confirms a high probability of continued growth towards 1.1845, provided that quotes consolidate above 1.1755.
Source: Roboforex