Risk assets rallied after US jobless claims data pointed to decreasing strength of the US labor market. Labor market imbalances are now the key driver of inflation (through the impact of wages on consumer demand), which implies higher-than-usual sensitivity of investors to the data releases like Unemployment Claims, NFP and JOLTS reports.

Continuing jobless claims rose again and reached the highest level since February 2022:

The S&P 500 index had been falling for 5 days in a row and almost broke through an important technical level – the 100-day moving average. Despite the fact that there are no obvious bearish catalysts yet, the technical chart says otherwise – the rally since October struggled to break above key medium-term bearish trend line (from which the price had bounced three more times since November last year), now the price has rested on the lower border of the short-term ascending channel, in which the rally has been running since mid-October:

The market may attempt to retest 4000 level, but the chances of a sustained breakout in my view are lower than the bearish bounce from the level. The reason for this is decreasing chances of the Fed Pivot. However, if price manages to break and consolidate above the key trend line, this may signal that the market finally escaped bearish trend and the move may stretch towards horizontal resistance at 4250 level. In case of a false breakout, a move lower below 3970 that will break short-term upside channel may become a good opportunity to sell. The denouement is likely to follow at the Fed meeting next week.