The AUDUSD rate is losing ground after rebounding from a key resistance level amid persistent demand for the US dollar. The current rate is 0.6417. Discover more in our analysis for 4 September 2025.
AUDUSD forecast: key trading points
- Australia’s economy grew by 0.6% in Q2, beating the forecast of 0.5%
- Expectations have strengthened that the Reserve Bank of Australia will keep interest rates unchanged until the end of the month
- The RBA governor stated that further rate cuts are unlikely amid accelerating consumer spending
- AUDUSD forecast for 4 September 2025: 0.6425
Fundamental analysis
The AUDUSD rate is falling after a failed attempt to consolidate above the 0.6550 resistance level. The US dollar strengthened despite Australia’s economy expanding by 0.6% in Q2, beating the 0.5% forecast and marking the fastest annual pace in almost two years thanks to robust household consumption.
This outcome reinforced expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will keep interest rates at current levels until the end of the month. Additional data released today supported this view: Australia’s trade surplus widened to 7.31 billion AUD in July from AUD 5.37 billion in June. A 3.3% increase in exports and a 1.3% drop in imports secured the positive balance.
Earlier, RBA Governor Michele Bullock noted that further rate cuts are unlikely in an environment of accelerating consumer spending, which may limit the US dollar’s strength in today’s AUDUSD forecast.
AUDUSD technical analysis
The AUDUSD rate bounced off a strong resistance level at 0.6550 and consolidated below the lower boundary of the bullish channel, indicating stronger selling pressure.
Today’s AUDUSD forecast suggests a bearish impulse, with the price testing the nearest support level at 0.6485 and, if broken, dipping towards 0.6425. The Stochastic Oscillator signals in favour of sellers: its lines have turned downwards from overbought territory, confirming the likelihood of further decline.
A breakout below the bullish channel’s lower boundary would further confirm the bearish scenario, with the price consolidating below 0.6495.
Summary
Despite strong Australian economic data, the AUDUSD rate remains under pressure, highlighting the US dollar’s short-term advantage. AUDUSD technical analysis points to a strengthening bearish impulse with a high risk of decline towards 0.6425.
Source: Roboforex