Although EURUSD quotes are attempting to recover, strong US macroeconomic data continues to strengthen the dollar’s position. The price currently stands at 1.1614. Find more details in our analysis for 18 July 2025.
EURUSD forecast: key trading points
- Initial jobless claims fell to 221 thousand
- Retail sales in June rose by 0.6% month-on-month, far exceeding forecasts of 0.1%
- Strong data confirms the resilience of the US economy
- EURUSD forecast for 18 July 2025: 1.1445
Fundamental analysis
The EURUSD rate is rising today, with buyers firmly holding the key support at 1.1585. However, the US dollar has been strengthening for the second consecutive week, gaining momentum from fresh macroeconomic reports indicating the ongoing resilience of the US economy.
Initial jobless claims dropped by 7 thousand to 221 thousand last week, defying expectations for an increase to 235 thousand. This marks a three-month low, highlighting the continued strength of the labour market.
Additional support for the dollar came from retail sales data. In June, retail sales increased by 0.6% compared to May, well above the expected 0.1% rise. For reference, May saw a 0.9% decline. On a yearly basis, retail sales rose by 3.9% in June, up from 3.3% the previous month.
These strong reports reinforce the view that the US economy remains robust despite President Donald Trump’s tariff policies. This reduces the likelihood of imminent Fed rate cuts and supports the bearish outlook for the EURUSD pair.
EURUSD technical analysis
The EURUSD rate remains below the EMA65, confirming sustained downside pressure. Sellers have pushed the price under the 1.1645 resistance level, which previously served as support. Today’s EURUSD forecast suggests further downside potential towards the 1.1445 level.
The Stochastic Oscillator analysis also signals bearish momentum: the indicator has reached a downtrend line, suggesting continued downward pressure.
A breakout and consolidation below key support at 1.1545 would confirm further downside.
Summary
Strong labour market and retail sales data in the US boost the dollar’s position and reinforce the bearish forecast for EURUSD. Technical analysis confirms bearish momentum with a near-term target at 1.1445.
Source: Roboforex
