The upcoming FOMC minutes could significantly impact the USDJPY pair, driving it up to 146.50. Find out more in our analysis for 9 April 2025.
USDJPY forecast: key trading points
- Japan’s Consumer Confidence Index: previously at 34.8, currently at 34.1
- FOMC meeting minutes scheduled for release
- USDJPY forecast for 9 April 2025: 144.10 and 146.50
Fundamental analysis
Japan’s Consumer Confidence Index is an indicator of consumer sentiment, which reflects the population’s confidence in the economy and future income. It is based on surveys of 5 thousand households about financial prospects, employment, and willingness to spend. Readings above 50.0 indicate optimism, while lower values point to pessimism. The index is essential for forecasting the country’s consumer spending and economic performance.
The forecast for 9 April 2025 expected the indicator to decline to 34.7 points, but the actual reading came in at 34.1. The loss of confidence in the country’s economic health typically weighs on the national currency. Given that the reading is below 50.0, this may act as a catalyst for USDJPY growth.
Fundamental analysis for 9 April 2025 takes into account that the FOMC will release its meeting minutes from 18-19 March 2025. At that meeting, the Fed kept rates unchanged, raised its inflation forecast to 2.7%, and lowered its economic growth outlook to 1.7%.
The minutes will offer deeper insight into the Federal Reserve’s view on inflation, economic risks, and future monetary policy actions. Markets will focus on commentary regarding recent trade tariffs and their potential impact on the US economy.
Traders will be watching closely for signals on Fed’s future interest rate changes and sentiment, which could affect the US dollar and other financial instruments.
USDJPY technical analysis
Having tested the upper Bollinger band, the USDJPY pair has formed a Hanging Man reversal pattern on the H4 chart. The pair now maintains its downward momentum following the pattern signal. Currently, the USDJPY rate is trading near the lower boundary of the descending channel, suggesting a possible rebound from the support level and the beginning of a corrective wave.
The target for the correction is 146.50. A rebound from this level could open the door for a further downward movement.
However, the USDJPY forecast for today also considers another scenario, where the price drops straight to 144.10 without a correction.
Summary
With the release of the FOMC minutes and weak household confidence data from Japan, today’s USDJPY forecast is unfavourable for the yen. The USDJPY technical analysis suggests a possible correction towards 146.50.
Source: Roboforex
