The reduction of tariffs for Japan to 15% strengthens the yen. Against this backdrop, the USDJPY rate may decline towards 145.00. Find out more in our analysis for 24 July 2025.
USDJPY forecast: key trading points
- Japan services PMI: previously at 51.7, currently at 53.5
- US initial jobless claims: previously at 221 thousand, projected at 227 thousand
- USDJPY forecast for 24 July 2025: 148.70
Fundamental analysis
Today’s USDJPY forecast favours the yen. US President Donald Trump lowered tariffs for Japan from 25% to 15%, which positively impacted the Japanese currency and triggered its appreciation.
The services PMI in Japan covers a range of sectors, including transport and communications, financial intermediation, business and household services, IT, hospitality, and restaurants.
Fundamental analysis for 24 July 2025 appears optimistic for the yen. The services PMI rose to 53.5 from 51.7 previously. The indicator remains above the 50.0 threshold, which should add to the yen’s strength.
Meanwhile, US initial jobless claims represent the number of people who claimed unemployment benefits for the first time during the previous week. This indicator measures the labour market climate, with an increase in initial jobless claims indicating rising unemployment.
The previous reading was 221 thousand, and USDJPY forecasts point to an increase to 227 thousand. While the rise seems modest, any significant deviation from expectations could notably affect USDJPY dynamics.
USDJPY technical analysis
Having tested the lower Bollinger Band, the USDJPY pair formed a Hammer reversal pattern around the 146.00 area on the H4 chart. At this stage, the pair may form a corrective wave as part of the signal’s completion. The USDJPY pair remains within an ascending channel, which suggests it could continue to decline towards the support level after the correction.
The USDJPY forecast for 24 July 2025 also considers an alternative scenario, where the price continues to decline towards the 145.00 level without a retracement.
Summary
The reduction of tariffs for Japan to 15%, combined with USDJPY technical analysis, suggests a further decline towards the 145.00 support level after a possible correction.
Source: Roboforex
