The US 30 stock index has reached a new all-time high and is rising steadily following the US Federal Reserve’s key rate cut. Find out more in our US 30 analysis and forecast for next week, 11-17 November 2024.
US 30 forecast: key trading points
- Recent data: the US Federal Reserve lowered the interest rate to 4.75%
- Economic indicators: the interest rate determines the cost of money in the economy
- Market impact: a rate cut positively impacts the stock market and drives economic growth
- Resistance: 43,385.0, Support: 41,670.0
- US 30 price forecast: 44,370.0
Fundamental analysis
The Fed’s press office reported that the US Federal Reserve trimmed interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.50-4.75%. The last instance of two consecutive rate cuts within a single cycle occurred in March 2020. Reducing the key rate makes loans cheaper for businesses and consumers, stimulating economic activity in the US.
Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate
The latest data from the Federal Reserve indicate that economic activity continues to grow steadily. The 0.25% Federal Reserve rate cut may positively impact the stock market, especially for companies focused on domestic demand and consumption. Lower borrowing costs typically encourage increased spending by businesses and consumers, which may improve the earnings of retail trade, consumer services, and technology companies.
Lower rates also reduce corporations’ borrowing costs, enabling increased investments in business development and process improvement. Investors typically respond to such measures from the Federal Reserve with growing optimism, which can boost stock prices. With sustained economic growth, as noted in the regulator’s announcement, the market may anticipate a further increase in companies’ earnings, supporting the stock market. The US 30 index forecast is optimistic.
US 30 technical analysis
The US 30 stock index has reached a new all-time high and remains in a strong uptrend. According to the US 30 technical analysis, the next growth target could be the 44,370.0 level if the quotes hold above the previously breached resistance level at 43,385.0. There are no signs of a trend reversal in the medium term.
The following scenarios are considered for the US 30 price forecast:
- Pessimistic US 30 forecast: a breakout below the 41,670.0 support level could push the index down to 40,860.0
- Optimistic US 30 forecast: if the price holds above the previously breached 43,385.0 resistance level, it could rise to 44,370.0
Summary
The US Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.50-4.75%. The regulator believes that the latest data show steady economic growth. The US 30 stock index has reached a new all-time high and is in a stable uptrend, with the next growth target at 44,370.0.
NZDUSD: the New Zealand dollar is still likely to strengthen
NZDUSD price forecast and analysis for today, 8 November 2024
nzdusd-forecast-2024-11-08
The US dollar continues to lose ground against the New Zealand dollar amid fundamental data. Find out more in our analysis for 8 November 2024.
NZDUSD forecast: key trading points
CFTC NZD speculative net positions: previously at -2.2 thousand
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: previously at 70.5, projected at 71.0
A speech by US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) member, Michelle Bowman
NZDUSD forecast for 8 November 2024: 0.6055
Fundamental analysis
The weekly Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) report analyses the volume of non-commercial traders’ speculative positions in the US markets. This report shows the difference between traders’ long and short NZD positions on the Chicago and New York futures markets. The CFTC report is published every Friday and covers data as of Tuesday of the current week.
According to the previous data, the number of long speculative NZD positions remains negative, indicating that bears dominate the market.
The fundamental analysis for 8 November 2024 shows that the number of speculative net NZD positions has been negative for three reporting periods. Nevertheless, the NZD may continue to strengthen against the US dollar.
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is a key economic indicator that measures American consumers’ confidence in the economy’s current state and outlook. Published by the Institute for Social Research, this index is regularly used by economists, the government, and investors to predict consumer demand and analyse US economic trends.
The index is based on monthly surveys of approximately 500 American households. Respondents answer questions about:
Their current financial position and how it has recently changed
Their short-term economic forecasts and views on the economic outlook for the next 12 months
Their long-term expectations and views on economic conditions for the next five years
The forecast for 8 November 2024 suggests that the index may rise by 0.5% from the previous period.
US FOMC member Michelle Bowman, who is also a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, will deliver a speech today, 8 November 2024. Her report may provide data on future US monetary policy.
NZDUSD technical analysis
The NZDUSD H4 chart shows that the market has formed a consolidation range around the 0.5984 level. After breaking above it, the price has reached the local target of the growth impulse at 0.6037. A technical return to the 0.5984 level (testing from above) could follow today, 8 November 2024. Subsequently, upward momentum might continue to 0.6055, the first target. A downward wave could start once the price reaches this target, aiming for 0.5984.
The Elliott Wave structure and wave matrix for the NZDUSD rate, with a pivot point at 0.6125, technically confirm this scenario. The market is currently at the midline of a price envelope, with a consolidation range expected to form around this line. A breakout above this range could lead to the continuation of the corrective wave towards the upper boundary of the price envelope at 0.6055.
Summary
Together with the positive fundamental data from New Zealand, the technical analysis for today’s NZDUSD forecast suggests that the growth wave could continue towards the 0.6055 level.
Source: Roboforex
