US 500 approached a resistance level and may enter a downward correction before resuming its upward movement. The forecast for US 500 today remains positive.
US 500 forecast: key trading points
- Recent data: US Leading Economic Index (LEI) for June declined by 0.3%
- Market impact: This is a negative signal for equities, as the LEI consists of 10 components reflecting future economic activity
US 500 fundamental analysis
The US Leading Economic Index (LEI) dropped by -0.3% in June, compared to expectations of -0.2% and a flat reading the previous month. The decline in the LEI serves as a warning of a potential slowdown in economic activity over the next 6–12 months. While the drop isn’t critical, it signals a weakening growth momentum in the US economy. This could limit risk appetite in the stock market and strengthen expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
The decline in the LEI, against already subdued expectations, supports a more cautious approach. In the short term, investors may rotate from cyclical into defensive sectors. If signs of slowing growth persist, this could increase the likelihood of more accommodative monetary policy, potentially supporting the tech sector.
United States Leading Index: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/leading-economic-index
US 500 technical analysis
The US 500 index reached a new all-time high, breaking above the 6,300.0 level. Support now stands at 6,240.0, with resistance at 6,325.0. The strong upward trend remains intact, although a brief correction cannot be ruled out. After this pullback, the index may resume its climb and post fresh record highs.
Key price forecast scenarios for the US 500:
- Bearish scenario: if support at 6,240.0 breaks, the index may fall toward 6,160.0
- Bullish scenario: if resistance at 6,325.0 breaks, the index may rise to 6,390.0
US 500 technical analysis for 23 July 2025
Summary
The decline in the LEI raises concerns about future demand, which may weigh on earnings in sectors such as industrials, logistics, airlines, and banking. The US 500 index remains in a strong uptrend and still holds potential to renew its record highs. The next growth target could be the 6,390.0 level. However, a short-term correction remains possible.
Source: Roboforex
