Following the release of the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey, the USDCAD pair could continue its decline towards the 1.4150 support level. Discover more in our analysis for 7 April 2025.
USDCAD forecast: key trading points
- Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey
- CB Employment Trends Index: previously at 108.56, projected at 108.93
- USDCAD forecast for 7 April 2025: 1.4150 and 1.4265
Fundamental analysis
The Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey provides insight into the central bank’s future policy direction. The document is based on surveys of business leaders contributing most to Canada’s GDP and reveals sentiment regarding demand, prices, hiring, and investment. For traders, this survey is a key signal on whether the BoC will lean towards tightening or easing policy. Its release often sparks short-term volatility for the CAD and related cross rates.
The Conference Board Employment Trends Index is a composite indicator reflecting US labour market dynamics. It combines eight labour market components (including jobless claims, job openings, and business surveys) to give early warnings of trend shifts. For traders, it serves as a forward-looking signal on labour conditions and potential USD movements, especially ahead of major data releases.
Fundamental analysis for 7 April 2025 takes into account that the index could increase to 108.93. If the actual figure rises, this may support growth in the USDCAD rate.
Despite the news, the USDCAD forecast for today does not appear positive for the USD as it may lose ground against the Canadian dollar. A forecast-aligned release may also push the pair lower.
USDCAD technical analysis
On the H4 chart, the USDCAD pair has formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger band. At this stage, it continues to correct following the pattern signal. Since the price remains within the descending channel, a correction to the nearest resistance at 1.4265 is likely. A rebound from this level may open the door for further downside momentum.
However, the forecast for today, 7 April 2025, also considers a scenario where the price plunges to 1.4150 and gains downward momentum after breaking below the support level.
Summary
The upcoming release of the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey and the CB Employment Trends Index could heighten volatility in the USDCAD pair. Despite the potential for stronger US employment data, the fundamentals continue to support the Canadian dollar. The USDCAD technical analysis suggests a further decline following a correction.
Source: Roboforex
