The USDCAD pair starts around 1.3700. Canadian domestic data partly offsets the tariff narrative. Discover more in our analysis for 14 July 2025.
USDCAD forecast: key trading points
- USDCAD resumes its upward movement, although Canadian domestic news limits gains
- Market focus remains on trade tariffs and duties
- USDCAD forecast for 14 July 2025: 1.3710 and 1.3757
Fundamental analysis
The USDCAD rate rises quickly and touches 1.3700 on Monday. This follows President Donald Trump’s decision last week to impose a 35% tariff on all Canadian goods not covered by the USMCA agreement. The measure takes effect on 1 August. The announcement heightened concerns about Canada’s export market access and increased uncertainty over trade policy.
Trump justified the move by citing a lack of cooperation from Ottawa and pointed to Canada’s reciprocal tariffs. Altogether, this has increased pressure on the Canadian government ahead of potential negotiations. The new tariffs add to the existing 50% duties on Canadian steel and aluminium, even though Canada remains the largest supplier of these metals to the US.
However, robust macroeconomic figures support the Canadian dollar and prevent a deeper decline. In June, the Canadian economy added 83,100 jobs, and unemployment fell to 6.9%. These figures cooled expectations of a rate cut by the Bank of Canada at the 30 July meeting and temporarily offset trade-related pressure.
The USDCAD forecast is moderate.
USDCAD technical analysis
The H4 chart shows that since early July 2025, the USDCAD pair has traded within a range, confined between support and resistance levels. The pair stays within a sideways corridor with a key support level at 1.3637 and resistance at 1.3710. The price hovers near the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, indicating temporary stabilisation and a lack of a clear trend.
Attempts to rise above 1.3710 have not been particularly successful, with several pullbacks from that level. The lower boundary around 1.3637 has repeatedly prevented further declines. The overall pattern suggests consolidation as the market awaits new catalysts. A breakout above 1.3710 could pave the way towards 1.3757, while a breakout below the range’s lower boundary may lead to a drop towards 1.3555.
Summary
The USDCAD pair is consolidating within a range as the market waits for new drivers, while tariffs remain in the spotlight. The USDCAD forecast for today, 14 July 2025, allows for a potential move towards the upper boundary at 1.3710 and further to 1.3757.
Source: Roboforex
