The USDJPY pair climbed to 148.66. The yen remains under pressure amid BoJ rate expectations and the Jackson Hole Symposium. Discover more in our analysis for 22 August 2025.
USDJPY forecast: key trading points
- The USDJPY pair benefits from yen weakness and climbs higher
- The market closely monitors Japan’s inflation signals
- USDJPY forecast for 22 August 2025: 148.73 and 149.73
Fundamental analysis
The USDJPY pair rose to 148.66 on Friday, marking a three-week low for the yen amid market reaction to fresh inflation data.
Japan’s core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.1% year-on-year in July after 3.3% in June, beating forecasts of 3.0%. The figure remains well above the Bank of Japan’s 2.0% target, fueling speculation of a possible policy shift.
Analysts expect core inflation to remain above 3.0% for an extended period, raising the likelihood of a rate hike as early as October. At the July meeting, the BoJ revised its inflation outlook and acknowledged the possibility of tightening before the end of the year.
However, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda maintains a cautious stance, stressing that core inflation has yet to demonstrate a stable alignment with the 2.0% target.
Additional pressure on the yen came from a stronger US dollar, as investors await Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole, where he may reshape expectations about imminent rate cuts.
The USDJPY forecast is positive.
USDJPY technical analysis
On the H4 chart, the USDJPY pair has traded between 146.20 and 148.73 over the past two weeks. After the decline in early August, the pair entered sideways consolidation before building an upward impulse.
The key levels to watch include the 146.20 support level (range bottom). The nearest support lies at 147.59, an area of repeated reversals, with the resistance level at 148.73, the range’s upper boundary. A breakout here would open the way to 149.73 and further to 150.95.
Technically, the pair is approaching the range’s upper boundary, while Bollinger Bands are widening, indicating rising volatility. Consolidation above 148.73 will signal further upside momentum, while failure could trigger a pullback towards 147.59.
Summary
The USDJPY pair is set to extend its rally. The USDJPY forecast for today, 22 August 2025, suggests an advance towards 148.73.
Source: Roboforex