Ahead of US statistical releases, the USDJPY rate may continue its correction towards the 147.60 support level. Discover more in our analysis for 4 September 2025.
USDJPY forecast: key trading points
- US ADP nonfarm employment change: previously at 104 thousand, projected at 73 thousand
- US initial jobless claims: previously at 229 thousand, projected at 230 thousand
- USDJPY forecast for 4 September 2025: 147.60 and 149.00
Fundamental analysis
The fundamental outlook for 4 September 2025 shows that the USDJPY pair continues its correction, trading around 148.20.
The ADP nonfarm employment change in the US, scheduled for release on 4 September 2025, is forecast to decline to 73 thousand. However, this is only a projection. The previous month saw a strong increase in employment, and actual figures may once again diverge significantly. Today’s USDJPY forecast takes into account that a weaker-than-expected actual reading would add to pressure on the US dollar. Conversely, stronger-than-forecast data could help the USDJPY pair end its correction and resume growth towards 149.00.
Initial jobless claims reflect the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time in the previous week. An increase signals a weakening labour market.
The previous reading was 229 thousand, while today’s USDJPY forecast suggests a slight uptick to 230 thousand. Although the expected rise is minor, any significant deviation from forecasts could have a noticeable impact on USD positioning.
USDJPY technical analysis
Having tested the upper Bollinger Band, the USDJPY pair formed a Shooting Star reversal pattern on the H4 chart. Currently trading near 148.20, the pair may continue a downward wave as the pattern plays out. The USDJPY rate remains within an ascending channel, which suggests there is still potential for a dip towards the 147.60 support level.
At the same time, the USDJPY forecast also considers an alternative scenario, where the price could head directly to 149.00 without testing the support level first.
Summary
The expected slowdown in US ADP nonfarm employment data, combined with USDJPY technical analysis, points to a likely move towards the 147.60 support level before any resumption of growth.
Source: Roboforex