The USDJPY rate is declining, dropping to 147.00 following the release of statistics showing that US CPI inflation matched forecasts. Find more details in our analysis for 12 September 2025.
USDJPY forecast: key trading points
- Market focus: US consumer inflation rose by 2.9% year-on-year
- Current trend: trading within a broad sideways range
- USDJPY forecast for 12 September 2025: 146.00 or 148.00
Fundamental analysis
The US and Japan released a joint statement once again stressing that exchange rates should remain market-determined and that excessive volatility is undesirable. Japan’s Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato noted that no specific currency levels were discussed with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
Domestically, investors continued to assess the outlook for Bank of Japan policy amid mixed economic signals and political uncertainty. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba recently announced his resignation, facing mounting pressure after last year’s election defeat and widening divisions within the ruling party.
The US consumer inflation data published yesterday was broadly in line with forecasts, reinforcing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the September meeting.
USDJPY technical analysis
The USDJPY pair is declining after an unsuccessful test of the resistance level in the area around 148.00. The Alligator indicator has turned downwards, confirming the current bearish momentum. The local support level is now at 147.00, and a breakout below it will open the way to 146.30.
The USDJPY forecast for today suggests that the pair may continue to decline towards support at 147.00 if the bears keep control. Conversely, an upward move is possible if the bulls reverse the quotes and firmly consolidate above 148.00.
Summary
The USDJPY price tumbled to the 147.00 area after US inflation data came out in line with forecasts. Market participants still expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates at the upcoming meeting.
Source: Roboforex