The USDJPY rate remains stable within a sideways range after rebounding from a support level, while market focus is on US inflation data. The rate currently stands at 147.45. Find more details in our analysis for 11 September 2025.
USDJPY forecast: key trading points
- Business sentiment in Japan improved in Q3 amid a sharp rise in exports
- Japanese companies accelerated shipments to the US ahead of the introduction of universal 15% tariffs
- Producer prices in Japan rose by 2.7% y/y in August versus a revised 2.5% increase a month earlier
- USDJPY forecast for 11 September 2025: 146.25
Fundamental analysis
The USDJPY rate is rising after bouncing off the support level. The currency pair remains within a sideways range on the daily timeframe, maintaining stability for the third consecutive session. Investors are taking a wait-and-see stance ahead of the release of US consumer inflation data, which may strengthen expectations of a deeper Federal Reserve rate cut.
In Japan, business sentiment improved in Q3 thanks to a sharp surge in exports. Local companies accelerated shipments to the US in anticipation of the introduction of new universal 15% tariffs. Additional support came from producer price data: the index increased by 2.7% y/y in August, up from a revised 2.5% rise a month earlier.
Producer prices in the US unexpectedly fell by 0.1% in August compared with the previous month. This was the first decline in four months and surprised analysts, who had expected a 0.3% increase. On a yearly basis, the PPI index rose by 2.6%, also below the forecast of 3.3%.
USDJPY technical analysis
The USDJPY rate remains within a descending channel and is trading below a local resistance level at 147.75, keeping the advantage on the sellers’ side. Another attempt to rebound from this level indicates the risk of renewed decline and a test of the 146.25 support level.
The USDJPY forecast for today suggests continuation of the bearish scenario, with the price likely to correct towards the 147.80 resistance level in the short term before a new downward impulse. The Stochastic Oscillator has risen to overbought territory and is forming a reversal signal, confirming the probability of a decline.
A drop below the lower boundary of the ascending channel, with consolidation below 146.75, would strengthen the scenario of the US dollar weakening against the yen.
Summary
While the USDJPY rate remains resilient, upcoming US inflation data may set a new direction, reinforcing expectations of a softer Fed policy. USDJPY technical analysis indicates prevailing bearish sentiment with a risk of a decline towards 146.25.
Source: Roboforex