The USDJPY pair surged to 148.80, with political imbalance weighing on the yen outlook. Find out more in our analysis for 3 September 2025.
USDJPY forecast: key trading points
- The USDJPY pair is rising rapidly
- The market is monitoring political issues and pricing in these risks
- USDJPY forecast for 3 September 2025: 148.90
Fundamental analysis
The USDJPY rate climbed to 148.80 midweek. The yen reached a one-month low amid political uncertainty in Japan.
Hiroshi Moriyama, secretary of the ruling party and close ally of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, announced his resignation. This fueled speculation about Ishiba’s potential departure, with pressure mounting after his election defeat. Among possible successors is Sanae Takaichi, known for her support of low interest rates.
Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino emphasised on Tuesday that the central bank will continue to raise rates gradually but noted the persistence of elevated global risks. This signals no urgency in tightening policy.
Investors now await fresh wage data, which should provide additional signals on the future course of monetary policy.
The USDJPY forecast is positive.
USDJPY technical analysis
On the H4 chart, the USDJPY pair is moving within a wide sideways range, but in early September, it shows a sharp rise, currently trading around 148.80, near the upper boundary of the range. Throughout August, the pair repeatedly tested the 147.30 support level and the 148.90 resistance level, oscillating within this corridor.
Resistance stands at 148.90, the local high. An upward breakout would pave the way to new peaks above 149.00. The support level lies at 147.30, and a breakout below it would open the path to the next zone at 146.20.
Bollinger Bands narrowed at the end of August, signalling consolidation, but are now expanding upwards along with the rally, confirming heightened volatility. The fresh bullish impulse pushed the price to the channel’s upper boundary, indicating possible overbought conditions.
The USDJPY pair retains bullish momentum, testing the key resistance level at 148.90. A breakout could strengthen the rally, while a retreat below 147.30 would confirm a return to sideways trading, targeting 146.20.
Summary
The USDJPY pair is set to extend its climb on Wednesday. The USDJPY forecast for today, 3 September 2025, suggests buying momentum may carry the pair to 148.90.
Source: Roboforex