The USDJPY pair starts the week around 148.19. Investors are assessing the consequences of political developments and monitoring the tariff situation. Find more details in our analysis for 21 July 2025.
USDJPY forecast: key trading points
- #.The USDJPY pair climbs following last week’s turbulence
- Japan focuses on the US tariff issue, with less than two weeks remaining before implementation
- USDJPY forecast for 21 July 2025: 149.20
Fundamental analysis
The USDJPY rate climbed to 148.19 on Monday. The instrument appears stable after last week’s volatility, when the yen weakened amid political uncertainty following the historic defeat of the ruling coalition in Japan’s upper house elections.
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba faces a rare political scenario – one that has not occurred since 1955 – where the ruling party has lost control over at least one chamber. He will now have to negotiate with the opposition.
The opposition is expected to push for increased public spending and tax cuts. This could put additional pressure on the yen and potentially drive Japanese government bond yields to multi-year highs.
Meanwhile, additional support for the yen came from trade-related news. US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick reiterated that 1 August remains the firm deadline for the new tariffs to come into effect, although negotiations may continue.
The USDJPY forecast is moderate.
USDJPY technical analysis
The USDJPY H4 chart shows a steady uptrend from late June through 18 July 2025, with the pair rising from 143.50 to a local high near 149.19. After reaching the peak near 149.20, the pair corrected lower and is currently hovering around 148.48. The 148.00-149.20 range has become a consolidation area.
Support levels lie at 147.47 and 146.90, with resistance at the 149.19 peak. A breakout above this level could pave the way to new highs.
The Bollinger Bands indicator is narrowing, signalling reduced volatility and the potential for accumulation. A consolidation above 149.20 or below 147.47 will signal a new price impulse.
Summary
The USDJPY pair has stabilised and entered a consolidation phase, but it has support points. The USDJPY forecast for today, 21 July 2025, does not rule out a breakout above 149.20.
Source: Roboforex
