The USDJPY rate may reach 156.10 amid US fundamental data. Discover more in our analysis for 4 February 2025.
USDJPY forecast: key trading points
- US JOLTS job openings: previously at 8,098 million, projected at 8,010 million
- US factory orders (m/m): previously at -0.4%, projected at -0.7%
- A speech by FOMC member Raphael W. Bostic
- USDJPY forecast for 4 February 2025: 156.10 and 154.60
Fundamental analysis
US JOLTS job openings is a monthly report covering open positions in sectors such as trade, production, and office services. The indicator reflects the number of vacancies unfilled as of the last business day of the month.
The report is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and is based on the job openings and labour turnover survey, in which employers estimate the number of employees, vacancies, employment, and layoffs at their companies. This data is analysed and published monthly by industry and region.
The forecast for 4 February 2025 suggests that the actual reading may decrease to 8.010 million; a decrease in unemployment is a positive factor for the US dollar.
Fundamental analysis for 4 February 2025 takes into account that US factory orders may reach -0.7%. A decline in factory orders may adversely affect the USD.
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President and FOMC member Raphael W. Bostic is expected to deliver a speech today, 4 February 2025. His speeches often serve as an unofficial indicator of future US monetary policy.
Bostic earlier emphasised the need for patience and determination in achieving the 2% inflation target, noting that no interest rate cuts were planned for the end of 2024.
Given his previous statements, Bostic can be expected to outline current economic conditions, inflation trends, and possible monetary policy directions. Investors and analysts will be closely watching his speech for hints on future Federal Reserve monetary policy.
USDJPY technical analysis
Having tested the middle Bollinger band, the USDJPY price has formed a Hammer reversal pattern on the H4 chart. At this stage, it continues its upward momentum following the pattern signal. The uptrend will likely continue as the quotes have rebounded from the support level and are moving within an ascending channel.
The upside target could now be the 156.10 resistance level. A breakout above this level could pave the way for a more substantial upward movement.
However, an alternative scenario is possible, where the price undergoes a correction towards 154.60 before maintaining its upward momentum.
Summary
Together with the USDJPY technical analysis, Bostic’s speech suggests growth to 156.10.
Source: Roboforex
