The USDJPY pair has declined, albeit temporarily. The Bank of Japan still has no room to raise interest rates. Find out more in our analysis for 6 August 2025.
USDJPY forecast: key trading points
- The USDJPY pair is slightly edging down, but the yen faces many internal challenges
- Household income data limits the BoJ’s ability to raise interest rates
- USDJPY forecast for 6 August 2025: 146.61
Fundamental analysis
The USDJPY rate is hovering around 147.70 mid-week. Pressure on the yen increased after Japan released weak wage data. In June, real household income in Japan declined for the sixth consecutive month, indicating that inflation continues to outpace wage growth.
This dynamic makes it more difficult for the Bank of Japan to proceed with plans for further policy tightening. Weak wage growth alongside persistent inflation casts doubt on any imminent rate hike.
According to the minutes from the BoJ’s June meeting, the central bank considers policy tightening possible, but only if foreign trade risks subside. Meanwhile, the Japanese Ministry of Finance has called for greater flexibility in bond market operations to maintain stability.
Last week, the Bank of Japan left its key rate unchanged but revised its inflation forecast upwards. At the same time, it warned of growing risks from the global economy and trade environment.
The USDJPY forecast is neutral.
USDJPY technical analysis
On the H4 chart, the USDJPY pair stabilised around 147.38 following a sharp pullback from a high above 150. The pair is now trading within a narrow range between the 146.61 support level and the 147.83 resistance level.
Narrowing Bollinger Bands suggest declining volatility after the strong early August move. The price remains below the indicator’s middle line, confirming continued pressure on the dollar.
Without a decisive breakout above 147.83, the USDJPY pair remains at risk of further decline. A drop below 146.61 could open the way towards the 145.00 area. To resume the uptrend, the price would need to return above 148.68.
Summary
Despite the yen’s fundamental challenges, the USDJPY pair may come under pressure. The USDJPY forecast for today, 6 August 2025, does not rule out a move down to 146.61.
Source: Roboforex
