This weekly technical analysis highlights the key chart patterns and levels for EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD, gold (XAUUSD), and Brent crude oil to forecast market moves for the upcoming week (21-25 July 2025).
Major technical levels to watch this week
- EURUSD: Support: 1.1515-1.1266. Resistance: 1.1670-1.1880
- USDJPY: Support: 147.00-142.00. Resistance: 151.00-152.00
- GBPUSD: Support: 1.3300-1.3120. Resistance: 1.3500-1.4000
- AUDUSD: Support: 0.6411-0.6262. Resistance: 0.6500-0.6600
- USDCAD: Support: 1.3680-1.3500. Resistance: 1.3815-1.4000
- Gold: Support: 3,325-3,040. Resistance: 3,385-3,535
- Brent: Support: 69.90-68.50. Resistance: 71.30-73.40
EURUSD forecast
Weekly EURUSD outlook for 21-25 July 2025
The market stands at a decision point. While a downward direction remains the priority, key US macroeconomic data could reverse the trend. Trading from confirmed levels remains the most prudent strategy.
This week, the EURUSD performance will be influenced by economic data:
Eurozone:
– 23 July:
- Services and manufacturing PMIs will show whether the economy is slowing. Weak results may pressure the EUR
- ECB officials’ remarks could shed light on policy direction. Any hints at a continued easing pause favour the euro.
USA:
– 24 July: new US home sales could pressure USD gains
– 25 July: US GDP (preliminary Q2) and PCE are key events
- The main focus is on the US Q2 GDP and the PCE deflator
- Strong data will support the USD and confirm a bearish EURUSD outlook
- Weak data will increase expectations of Fed rate cuts, thereby supporting the EUR
Technical analysis:
The EURUSD pair formed a local top at 1.1880 on the daily chart, completing an upward wave. Breaking below the 1.1670 support level, the pair exited the ascending channel and initiated a downward wave structure.
- Target 1: 1.1515 – a local support level where a short-term pause and correction may occur
- Target 2: 1.1670 – a potential level for a retest from below
- Below 1.1515, the trend could continue:
- Target 3: 1.1266
- Target 5: 1.1100
With sustained downward movement, the pair could plunge to 1.0966 and even 1.0726, a strategic support level.
The SMA50 near 1.1515 serves as an intermediate support level and may open an alternative way for a recovery to 1.1850-1.1880.
Forecast scenarios:
Baseline (bearish):
- A breakout below 1.1670 opened the door for a move towards 1.1515
- A breakout below 1.1460 will strengthen downside momentum towards 1.1266
Alternative (bullish):
If the 1.1515 level holds and growth resumes with volume, a rebound to 1.1670 is possible, with growth continuing towards 1.1850-1.1880.
USDJPY forecast
Weekly USDJPY outlook for 21-25 July 2025
The USDJPY pair remains sensitive to US Treasury yields and Federal Reserve policy. The bullish momentum continues but approaches a critical 151.40-152.00 zone, where a reversal may occur. Fundamentals still favour the USD.
The dollar gained strength last week on strong US retail sales data and hawkish Fed member statements, keeping the door open for another rate hike. The 10-year Treasury yield stays near 4.20 %, supporting the USD.
BoJ officials remain vague despite inflation pressure, offering no clear signs of stimulus exit. The interest rate divergence with the Fed keeps the uptrend intact.
The rally nears levels where Japan previously intervened. Traders should closely watch price behaviour at 152.00 and monitor Japanese officials’ rhetoric. A breakout above 152.00 may prompt renewed intervention risks.
Technical analysis:
The daily chart outlines a growth structure within the wave format. The upward movement is development as the third wave, which began from the 142.11 level, with a local target at 151.40-152.00.
- The pair broke and held above the key 147.00 level – the pivot point
- The SMA50 below supports the current price zone
- The impulse is expected to complete at 152.00, where a crucial level of 50% Fibonacci retracement from the fall from 158.80 lies
The entire growth structure looks like a correction of the previous downward momentum. Therefore, after the third wave is complete, a pullback (wave 4) is possible, with a target at 147.00-145.50.
Forecast scenarios:
Bullish scenario:
Upward momentum could continue towards 151.40-152.00. An upward breakout will open the path for a move towards 154.00.
Bearish scenario:
The pair could reverse at 152.00 and pull back towards 147.00 before dipping to the 145.50-144.00 area. The 142.00 level is crucial for the bears. If it is broken, the pair could revisit the 140.00 area.
GBPUSD forecast
Weekly GBPUSD outlook for 21-25 July 2025
The British pound remains under pressure due to uncertainty surrounding the Bank of England’s monetary policy. The latest UK macroeconomic data, including weak GDP growth and easing inflation have prompted investors to reassess expectations for further rate hikes. Meanwhile, the Fed maintains its hawkish “higher for longer” stance, strengthening the USD. Key focus this week will be on UK PMI data and, most notably, the preliminary US Q2 GDP and PCE readings.
Technical analysis:
On the daily chart, the GBPUSD pair continues to develop a downward correction. After breaking and consolidating below 1.3455, the market opened the way to the local target of 1.3300. Continued pressure may push the pair to 1.3120 without much correction.
A weekly pivot point is 1.3455, the current battleground between bulls and bears. Thep rice is trading below the SMA50, reinforcing the bearish view. A recovery above 1.3500 and breakout above 1.3660 would invalidate the bearish scenario and point towards a renewed uptrend, targeting 1.3800-1.4000
Forecast scenarios:
Bearish scenario (baseline):
The 5-wave decline scenario remains possible:
- The current first wave may end near 1.3120, followed by a correction (the second wave) towards 1.3455, with the third and fifth waves continuing the structure towards the 1.2800 and 1.2727 targets
Bullish scenario (alternative):
A consolidation above 1.3500 will open a path to 1.3660, reigniting the uptrend.
- Targets: 1.3800, 1.4000, and up to 1.4160 under strong momentum
AUDUSD forecast
Weekly AUDUSD outlook for 21-25 July 2025
The Australian dollar remains under pressure due to deteriorating economic prospects in China, Australia’s key export partner. Commodity prices show instability, directly affecting AUD as a commodity-linked currency. The Reserve Bank of Australia has adopted a wait-and-see approach, and markets do not expect imminent rate changes. Meanwhile, the US dollar strengthens on hawkish Fed expectations, further weighing down the pair. Traders will closely monitor upcoming inflation data from Australia and commentary from the Federal Reserve.
Technical analysis:
On the daily chart, the AUDUSD pair broke below the key support level at 0.6500, which now serves as the weekly pivot point. Strong resistance is reinforced by the SMA50 passing through this zone. The failure to hold above 0.6590 accelerated the downward impulse, during which the price reached 0.6500. The next target lies at 0.6411. The price is expected to move towards 0.6262, with a breakout below this level potentially leading to a test of 0.6180.
However, if buyers push the price back above 0.6550, a recovery towards 0.6740 and even 0.6969 becomes possible, provided there is sustained demand for risk and commodities.
Forecast scenarios:
Bearish scenario (base case):
A consolidation below 0.6500 confirms the end of the correction
Next downside targets:
- 0.6411 – initial target
- 0.6262 – local target
- 0.6180 – main target for the first wave of the downtrend
Bullish scenario (alternative):
A consolidation above 0.6550 could push the price up to 0.6600.
Further upside targets:
- 0.6674 – local resistance level
- 0.6740 – previous accumulation zone
- 0.6969 – major target (extended fifth wave)
USDCAD forecast
Weekly USDCAD outlook for 21-25 July 2025
The Canadian dollar continues to respond to oil price fluctuations, which remain unstable due to concerns over a global economic slowdown and weak demand from China. Additional pressure on the CAD comes from the Bank of Canada’s neutral tone, despite keeping rates at elevated levels. Meanwhile, the US dollar strengthens amid expectations of Fed policy tightening, supporting the bullish momentum of the USDCAD pair. Market focus will be on upcoming Canadian inflation data and Jerome Powell’s testimony in Congress.
Technical analysis:
On the daily chart, the pair broke out upwards from the consolidation range between 1.3636 and 1.3727, crossing above the SMA50, signalling the beginning of a correction phase. After retesting the 1.3680 level from above, the pair has been developing an upward structure towards 1.3815, with potential to reach 1.3838 – the upper boundary of the current corrective structure. In case of reversal and weakening of the US dollar, a pullback to 1.3500 is likely – a local target based on the wave structure.
The long-term outlook remains neutral to bearish: only a breakout above 1.4020 would invalidate the downside potential. The current structure still appears to be a correction within a dominant downtrend.
Forecast scenarios:
Bearish scenario (alternative):
A consolidation below 1.3636 would intensify selling pressure.
Targets:
- 1.3500 – wave three target and potential reversal point
- 1.3380 – intermediate target
- 1.3250 – potential completion zone of the fifth wave (on a higher timeframe)
Bullish scenario (base case):
Holding above 1.3727 opens further upside potential towards 1.3815-1.3838. The main correction target lies at 1.4000.
XAUUSD forecast
Weekly XAUUSD outlook for 21-25 July 2025
Gold remains in focus amid persistent inflation risks, geopolitical instability, and Fed rate expectations. Despite hawkish remarks from some FOMC members, markets increasingly price in a pause or even a rate cut by autumn, providing moderate support to XAUUSD. Additional demand comes from buyers viewing gold as a safe-haven asset, especially as trust in risky assets and the US dollar wanes.
Technical analysis:
Gold maintains its upward momentum on the daily chart, originating from November 2024. Prices have held above the SMA50 near 3,325, confirming short-term demand. The nearest upside target is 3,385. A breakout above this level could pave the way to 3,500, and further to 3,535 — a possible top of the fifth wave on the higher timeframe.
However, the current structure is forming a broadening triangle – a potential signal for a major correction. A breakout below 3,290 would confirm the reversal scenario, with downside targets at 3,050-3,040, where a major support level lies.
Forecast scenarios:
Bullish scenario (base case):
A confident breakout above 3,385 will open the door for a move to:
- 3,500 – key resistance level from May
- 3,535 – potential upper boundary of the extended fifth wave
Bearish scenario (alternative):
A breakout and consolidation below 3,290 would open the way for a wave towards:
- 3,250 – interim support
- 3,040-3,050 – technical and fundamental correction zone
Brent forecast
Weekly Brent outlook for 21-25 July 2025
Brent crude is trading within balanced expectations. On one hand, prices are supported by OPEC+ quota compliance and signs of declining US inventories. On the other hand, concerns over global demand, particularly from China and Europe, persist. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East and US dollar volatility also influence short-term momentum.
The current demand-supply balance creates a zone of uncertainty, but the technical trend remains upward for now.
Technical analysis:
On the daily chart, Brent is consolidating around 68.60, forming a plateau pattern within an uptrend. The SMA50 supports the trend, serving as dynamic support.
The nearest target is the 71.30 area. An upward breakout would pave the way towards 73.30, then possibly 76.00 and even 81.00 – the projected target of the third wave on the higher timeframe. However, a breakout below 68.50 would be the first warning of a possible reversal.
Forecast scenarios:
Bullish scenario (base case): a consolidation above 68.60 confirms the relevance of the uptrend.
Upside targets:
- 71.30 – nearest resistance level
- 73.30-76.00 – expansion zone
- 81.00 – wave 3 target
Bearish scenario (alternative): a breakout and consolidation below 68.50 may trigger a correction.
Downside targets:
- 62.00 – key support levle
- 58.00 – March consolidation low
Source: Roboforex
