Global stock indices continue to edge down due to uncertainty caused by new US tariffs on Canada, China, and Mexico. Find out more in our analysis and forecast for global indices for 6 March 2025.
US indices forecast: US 30, US 500, US Tech
- Recent data: the US ISM services PMI came in at 53.5 in February
- Market impact: if the indicator rises amid improving employment and demand, it supports a wider range of economic sectors
Fundamental analysis
The February data showed 53.5, up from the previous 52.8, indicating stronger growth in the services sector. The services segment is the largest sector of the US economy. The indicator growth above expectations or the previous month shows higher business activity in this sector.
Investors remain concerned about the tariffs imposed on Canada, China, and Mexico, with duties on the EU next to come. They have not been approved yet, but an executive order can be signed at any moment. All this creates uncertainty and increases the risk of rising inflation.
US 30 technical analysis
The US 30 stock index plunged by over 6% from its all-time high. The quotes are in a strong downtrend. After breaking below the 43,240.0 support level, the price headed towards 41,840.0.
The following scenarios are considered for the US 30 price forecast:
- Pessimistic US 30 forecast: a breakout below the 42,370.0 support level could send the index down to 41,840.0
- Optimistic US 30 forecast: a breakout above the 43,875.0 resistance level could drive the index to 44,695.0
US 30 technical analysis
US 500 technical analysis
The US 500 stock index dropped by 6.7%, corrected, and formed a new support level at 5,735.0. According to the US 500 technical analysis, the downtrend will continue, with a downside target at 5,565.0.
The following scenarios are considered for the US 500 price forecast:
- Pessimistic US 500 forecast: a breakout below the 5,735.0 support level could push the index down to 5,565.0
- Optimistic US 500 forecast: a breakout above the 5,960.0 resistance level could propel the index to 6,020.0
US 500 technical analysis
US Tech technical analysis
The US Tech stock index is trading near the 200-day Moving Average within a downtrend. A sideways channel will likely form if the quotes do not fall below this line. Conversely, the downtrend could become long-term.
The following scenarios are considered for the US Tech price forecast:
- Pessimistic US Tech forecast: a breakout below the 20,030.0 support level could send the index down to 19,760.0
- Optimistic US Tech forecast: a breakout above the 20,900.0 resistance level could boost the index to 21,465.0
US Tech technical analysis
Asian index forecast: JP 225
- Recent data: the Au Jibun Bank services PMI in Japan was 53.7 in February
- Market impact: higher-than-forecast index growth indicates accelerating business activity in the services sector, which could improve investor sentiment and support stock market quotes
Fundamental analysis
The stronger-than-expected increase in the Au Jibun Bank services PMI to 53.7 signals that the Japanese services sectors continues to expand. This typically supports optimism in the stock market as it shows more robust domestic demand and improved business activity.
Nevertheless, Japan may be the next country after the EU to see increased tariffs from the US. Trade between these countries is a surplus for Japan, which does not sit well with US President Donald Trump.
JP 225 technical analysis
The JP 225 stock index remains in a downtrend. If the quotes breach the 35,115.0 level, the trend will become long-term. Conversely, a sideways channel with changed boundaries could form.
The following scenarios are considered for the JP 225 price forecast:
- Pessimistic JP 225 forecast: a breakout below the 36,260.0 support level could push the index down to 35,115.0
- Optimistic JP 225 forecast: a breakout above the 38,485.0 resistance level could propel the index to 39,625.0
JP 225 technical analysis
European index forecast: DE 40
- Recent data: Germany’s services PMI came in at 51.1 in February
- Market impact: this will likely signal cautious optimism for the stock market as economic activity, while slowing, is not going into recessionary territory
Fundamental analysis
The current services PMI of 51.1 (down from the previous 52.5) means that the services sector continues to grow but at a slower pace than in the previous month. The services sector is a significant part of the German economy. Slowing growth could point to more cautious behaviour of consumers and businesses, which could weigh on investor sentiment.
After imposing tariffs on Canada, China, and Mexico, the US authorities are considering similar taxes on the EU. Germany is the largest export-oriented economy in the EU. If such measures are taken, the stock market may come under pressure.
DE 40 technical analysis
The DE 40 stock index remains in an uptrend, with bulls and bears fighting for the resistance level. The potential for further growth remains.
The following scenarios are considered for the DE 40 price forecast:
- Pessimistic DE 40 forecast: a breakout below the 22,380.0 support level could send the index down to 21,800.0
- Optimistic DE 40 forecast: a breakout above the 23,315.0 resistance level could drive the index to 23,670.0
DE 40 technical analysis
Summary
The US presidential administration decided to impose new tariffs on Canada, China, and Mexico. Shortly afterwards, nearly all global stock indices went into a downtrend, except for the German DE 40. However, it will highly likely begin to correct soon as the US authorities may also impose duties on the EU countries.
Source: Roboforex
